Robert Steinadler, 8 months ago
It is Monday and the market is tanking again. This year has been long in terms of suffering since most crypto investors are punished over and over again by brutal sell-offs. Is this over or just the beginning and how can you still profit from these harsh market conditions?
The correlation between crypto and US stocks is still very high. The US inflation increased by 0,1 % in August which was higher than expected. Of course, inflation is still lower than in July 2022, but the key information is that it went higher compared to August last year.
This has lowered the expectations of many traders and investors. They were hoping that a lower inflation rate would indicate that the Fed could turn around and stop raising interest rates or even reverse its decisions.
Since the inflation increased, the possible end of Fed intervention is delayed and we have to deal with the fact that rate hikes will be a thing throughout 2022 as well as 2023. This lowers risk appetite and causes many investors to opt for cash rather than risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies and tech stocks among other things.
To add insult to injury this week’s FOMC meeting will reveal how much pain the Fed is willing to inflict on the market. It is a common consensus among analysts that the Fed will opt for another 75 bps rate hike.
According to the CME Fed watch tool, there is a chance of about 18 % that the rate hike will be way higher and the Fed is going for a 100 bps. This is the reason why stocks started weak this Monday and since the correlation between stocks and crypto is still intact, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and most other cryptocurrencies took a bath in a sea of red.
It is important to understand that the market in its current state is only dealing with expectations. That being said, if the Fed is going for 75 bps we are getting bullish vibes this week, and if it’s going to be more than that we continue to dance with the bears.
Yes, of course, but it strongly depends on your personal time preference. Recently a lot of bullish stuff has happened. Ethereum has decreased its inflation rate to one-tenth before the Merge. Should the adoption continue, it could possibly become even deflationary as a long-term effect over the next few years.
Bitcoins hashrate is at an all-time high. The network is growing despite the debate about the environmental impact of mining. This has been the bullish indicator in the past and it is unlikely that the miners would continue to grow their business if they weren’t sure that Bitcoin would grow in terms of price over the next two years or so.
Buying Bitcoin and Ether at low prices is what made many people rich last year. But they didn’t start buying when the price was going up. They bought when everybody else was dumping and eventually the public interest in the topic was at an all-time low. One strategy many retail investors apply is the dollar cost average strategy. It is very hard if not impossible to catch the bottom and deploying capital over time usually beats any attempt of timing the market.
May 19, 2023
Ripple is still fighting the SEC in court over the question of whether XRP is a security or not. While it is expected that the lawsuit will come to an end this year, the company is making big moves on the international market. Recently the company acquired Metaco, one of the big players in institutional custody solutions for digital assets. The deal fits perfectly into the bigger picture. Ripple has always focused on providing solutions for international payments and remittances. Solutions that are meant for institutional customers and not retail clients.
May 03, 2023
Today was the big day, and many traders spent their time in front of their screens waiting for Jerome Powell's speech during the press conference. Another FOMC meeting concluded, and another interest rate hike was announced.
May 01, 2023
Being believers in crypto we favor decentralization, so we don't like the current developments in the USA. Another relatively smaller bank went bust and will be acquired by JPMorgan, the biggest bank of the country.
Apr 25, 2023
The U.S. government reached its self-imposed debt limit or debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion (!) in January 2023. This has forced the US Treasury measures to 'pay out of pocket' to keep the government keep its obligations. The political uncertainty surrounding this debt ceiling is the reason the insurance premium against the US going bankrupt is at the highest price ever.
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