Erik Weijers, 9 months ago

Is the Ethereum Merge reflected in the ETH price?

The upcoming Ethereum Merge is the longest anticipated event in crypto in recent years. In recent months, the markets seem to express positive expectations: the price of Ethereum has held up better than Bitcoin's. But is the Merge, expected around September 15, already fully priced in? Or will a successful Merge lead to higher prices? We check the opinion of three prominent analysts.

In a recent interview, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, assessed that the Merge is not priced in yet. He hastened to say he didn't mean the price of Ether. Instead, he was talking about the mood that will turn for the better. After all, The Merge has taken so long that it almost became a mirage. The doubt by outsiders about progress will finally be gone.

Some traders / bystanders in the crypto space have been less shy to weigh in on the question if the price of Ether (currently around 1550 dollars) reflects the positive momentum that the technical milestone could provide.

Raoul Pal: Ether will become attractive to traditional investors

Let's first look at the opinion of veteran macro trader and CEO of Real Vision Raoul Pal. After the Merge, Ethereum can be staked in return for interest, paid out in Eth. As long as there will stay demand for blockspace, Ether could become a relatively risk-free investment vehicle that generates yield. It will make it more interesting to traditional investors. That crowd wouldn't own gold or a currency. Yield is what matters to them and they could hop on the staking train. Not immediately, probably, but gradually.

According to Raoul Pal, Ethereum becoming the benchmark for yield in the crypto space, like US Treasury bonds for the international bond market. This hasn't fully dawned on investors and hence hasn't been priced in.

Arthur Hayes: favorable market conditions

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, agrees with the above reasoning from Raoul Pal. What he adds as reasons to buy Ether now - if you believe in it - are market circumstances.

First of all, given all of the forced selling that occurred during the recent market crash, there is not enough capital available to aggressively buy up pre-merge Ether. A lot of small and big traders have been wrecked, the big investment firms have less capital to spend and average investors are discouraged.

After the liquidity crunch induced by the Fed, there is also less money floating around in the traditional markets - especially money that would be reserved for risky assets like crypto. A good time to reward the retail investor who believes in Ether and has some spare cash to invest.

Eric Wall: not priced in

Eric Wall (alternatively going under the name Erica Wall) is a software engineer and cryptocurrency systems analyst. He stresses that the issuance going down from roughly 4% to around 0% is a bigger effect than the recent Bitcoin halving. Combined with the better ESG (environment friendly) narrative after the Merge - no more mining means no more electricity 'waste' - Ether will become more in line with investors's ESG requirements. Add to that the simple fact that - IF the Merge is success in a technical sense - this is one less risk factor to worry about.

Conclusion: these are long-term views

Temping crypto Twitter, these three analysts seem to be expressing the average view that Ether should be able to do better after Merge. A word of caution is that many analysts add that their predictions are medium to long-term. The effects and reasons they mention play out over months or years. It's very well possible that the turbulent days after Merge will see a price drop. No-one knows, of course.

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