Erik Weijers, 2 months ago

Bitcoin breaks 30k level: bear market behind us?

It took a while before we had another 3 at the beginning of the Bitcoin exchange rate. Measured in dollars, that is. But that's just the rate quoted across the globe - plus, we seize any excuse to celebrate. Congratulations, you survived the bear market! Right? 

Bitcoin has now risen more than 90% since its November 2022 low. For the first time since June 2022, the exchange rate hits these 30 thousand levels again.  

As a Bitcoin follower, you've had a lot of opposition to digest over the last year. And many traditional media continue to write negatively. For example, the Dutch Financieele Dagblad wrote this morning:  

Without a clearly identifiable reason, bitcoin's price crept up again last weekend. [...] It remains unclear how many transactions and how much turnover are actually taking place. Almost every second the price changes, possibly generated by computers [...]. 

The New York Times published an article last week that quoted incorrect data on the carbon footprint of Bitcoin mining for the umpteenth time. The U.S. government continues to vehemently oppose the crypto industry - incidentally, Bitcoin is little affected, it is not a venture capital-backed industry.

Hodlers and buyers don't seem to care much and just keep buying. In recent months, no matter how negative the news was, the price hardly dropped at all: a sign that the low is behind us: there was simply no one left who cared to sell. 

To the moon?

Most (but not all) experienced analysts believe that the bear market is behind us.  

In recent months, indications began to pile up that the worst was behind us. There were also "technical" indicators of all kinds.

  • The price trend over the past six months resembles how Bitcoin has emerged from past bear markets.
  • The price of $25,000 was taken: the 200-week moving average.
  • $29,000 was a price that has acted as support and resistance in the past few years. That it has now been broken gives Bitcoin room to move up. 

The war is not yet won

Few things are as volatile as cryptocurrency prices. The economic situation is very uncertain. A recession seems almost a certainty and falling stock prices are not unthinkable. It remains to be seen whether crypto can escape this. 

Even if we look at early-stage Bitcoin bull markets from the past, we can see substantial pullbacks happening. In 2015, for example, the price made another visit to the already broken downtrend. And in 2020, during the corona crash, the price briefly plummeted to almost the level of the 2019 low.

All in all, reason enough to not count on a trip to the moon any time soon. But perhaps, we may be cautiously optimistic. Allow ourselves to enjoy this moment a bit.

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