Robert Steinadler, 10 months ago
PlanB is one of the most revered influencers in the crypto space, especially within the Bitcoin community. From the beginning of the bull run in 2020 up until the all-time high in November 2021, PlanB was standing by his model that predicted a Bitcoin price of at least $100.000 until the end of the year.
Fast forward: It is the year 2022 and PlanB is still into the stock-to-flow model only this time he claims that Bitcoin reach the same price by the end of next year.
It was yesterday when the influencer posted a new chart via Twitter taking the stock-to-flow model and a logarithmic regression model into account. According to his tweet Bitcoin could hit $100.000 next year. This is not the first time that he adjusted his original model.
But this also begs the question if those models and their predictions are worth the attention. A broken clock is right at least two times per day but claiming that Bitcoin will hit 100k at some point in the future might prove to be wrong at all times.
What is more important than the exact prediction of future events is the idea that Bitcoins scarcity will affect the price. With each halving, the stock-to-flow ratio is increasing and will reach a higher ratio than gold which has a higher market capitalization. This leaves enough room to speculate that Bitcoin’s price will adjust over time and see six figures and overtakes the predominate asset that is commonly used for value preservation.
PlanB is not the first and probably not the last person on earth that expects Bitcoin to reach a price target of $100.000 or more. Among them Fundstrats managing partner Tom Lee who only recently gave a forecast for Bitcoin during an interview with CNBC and a possible price target of $200.000 within the next few years.
The same goes for JPMorgan setting the bar unintentionally between the prediction of Lee and PlanB’s model. According to the managing director, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou Bitcoin has a long-term value of $150.000 but is currently overvalued and should be worth $38.000.
It seems that all these predictions eventually consider Bitcoin’s ultimate scarcity. Yet, it remains to be seen if the world is willing to adopt Bitcoin as the standard for value preservation or as a monetary network.
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