Erik Weijers, 3 months ago
Cardano (ADA) is a Layer 1 which is respected by crypto insiders as a project that has an extremely thorough development process. Even though the number of users and apps lag other projects of the same age, the big crowd of retail fans has kept Cardano in the top 10 in terms of its market cap. It even briefly reached #3 in 2021. What can we expect for the price of ADA in the coming years?
When trying to make a Cardano price prediction, the above is important information. It is a project much adored by its diehard fans, who are invested regardless of short-term hype that other projects offer. At the same time, for long-term price growth, broad adoption is vital. It remains to be seen if Cardano can attract large numbers of actual users.
Please note that the following Cardano price predictions do not constitute financial advice. Try to judge for yourself which factors you should take into account, based on the data we have available in 2023.
Short-term value is very hard to predict because crypto assets are highly volatile. Cardano is even more volatile than Bitcoin and Ethereum. This is because the market for ADA is smaller, and the future success of Cardano is even more speculative.
On short time frames, it is mostly global liquidity that determines the eb and flow of prices across the entire crypto market. Are central banks stingy or is the money printer going brrrr? The ease with which people can get their hands on dollars and euros determines how much they will spend in risky assets like crypto. That is at least the opinion of many macro analysts, including Raoul Pal from GMI.
This is why you will see prices of Bitcoin and other crypto like Cardano often move in tandem, either up or down. A rising tide will lift all boats, and a receding tide will lower all boats…
One interesting source to check out are the price predictions Coinmarketcap users make, which have been 54% accurate over the past six months at the time of writing. Do keep in mind these are predictions by mostly non-professional traders and enthusiasts.
The year prior to the Bitcoin halving (2024 will be the year of the next one) has traditionally been the year where prices of altcoins such as ADA have stayed rather flat. If history repeats, the price of Cardano wouldn’t see great movements. But consider that let’s say a 100% up or a 50% move down is a rather small move for crypto!
But we must take into account that the macro-economic situation is unstable. A recession is looming. Should stocks witness a new crash, they could bring down crypto prices with them, including ADA. On the other hand, a scenario where inflation falls, and a recession is avoided is also still possible. In that case, the Fed might lower interest rates, which will be good for risk assets like crypto. Each analysts will weigh different outcomes differently. There is simply no way to know.
Besides global money supply (liquidity), news events around a project can drive prices on even shorter time frames. What is on the roadmap for Cardano in 2023? It might be the so-called Voltaire upgrade. This upgrade will bring governance to the Cardano network. Cardano holders will be able to use their coins to vote on how the Cardano treasury should be spent. It is not yet certain that Voltaire will go live in 2023, so keep an eye on the news. As a rule – but there are exceptions, of course – price will go higher anticipating such an event and stabilize or go down once the event is behind us. Buy the rumor, sell the news.
2024 could become the year of price recovery and the start of a bull run. This has traditionally been the case, as every four years is a Bitcoin halving event.
How about the macroeconomic situation? Most analysts expect that by 2024, Central Banks will start dropping interest rates again. Also, assuming that inflation will have been (temporarily) tamed, it can be assumed that the money printer will go on again or stimulus checks will be handed out (consider the presidential elections in the US). This would create more tailwinds for crypto prices. Coinpedia puts their estimate at just under a dollar.
Many analysts believe that this will be the year in which the bull market is in full force and the prices of most coins will rally. In the previous bull market of 2021, Cardano rallied from roughly $0.15 to $3, a 20x. Can this happen again? If you follow the law of diminishing returns, it is less likely that the price increase will be so big next time. Coinpedia, for example, puts the average price prediction for 2025 slightly above one dollar.
If history repeats, 2026 could be the year of the correction after the bull run, similar to what we saw in 2018 and 2022. Traditionally, ADA has seen declines of 90% or more from the top of the bull market to the bottom of the bear market. That’s why investors who believe in the long-term success of ADA want to accumulate a position in these bearish years.
Obviously, on this timescale things get blurry. Will Cardano have succeeded getting sufficient adoption for its DeFi, NFT apps and who knows which other unheard-as-of-yet applications that the crypto space will provide by then? How much room will there be for competing Layer 1’s besides Ethereum? Will Cardano become and stay one of the few main rivals of Ethereum?
Keeping this uncertainty in mind, there are some educated guesses we can take. ARK Invest released its Big Ideas report, which estimates that the total crypto market capitalization could grow 25 times bigger between 2023 and 2030. Simply assuming that Cardano will do average, this would put ADA’s price in 2030 at around 8 or 9 dollars per ADA. This aligns quite nicely, by the way, with the average prediction of analysts polled by Changelly. Their average price prediction of ADA for 2030 is around $6.90.
Can anybody predict the price for Cardano with certainty?
No model or AI out there can predict a price with certainty. The markets have too many moving parts, and many price models only take into account old data, not emerging data. Take all projections with a grain of salt.
How do analysts make predictions about the Cardano price?
For big time horizon price predications, analysts consider what would happen if the past adoption growth curve stays on track. The reason is that in the long run, price is mainly a function of adoption. The risk with altcoins like Cardano is that they might not survive over long timeframes. So, even if crypto adoption stays on track as predicted, some coins will take the lion’s share while others will perish.
Are there any competitors to Cardano?
Cardano competes with alternative layer 1 smart contract platforms such as Ethereum, Solana, Polkadot and Binance Smart Chain. New chains are released every few months.
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