As the original cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has the longest price history. What do more than thirteen years of data tell us about the future price of Bitcoin? And what other indicators help analysts to predict Bitcoin's price? Let's look at some models and other considerations when creating a Bitcoin price expectation for the coming years. 

Disclaimer: before we kick off this analysis, be aware that price predictions are always to be taken with a grain of salt. The goal of any price prediction is not to predict the exact price - no one can - but to understand the underlying forces that drive price and use that understanding and knowledge to come up with an estimation the analyst believes in. While keeping in mind that markets keep changing and new forces emerge which were not part of previous market cycles, no matter how sound the analysis was - they will defy analysis. 

What determines the price of Bitcoin? Two big factors determine the price at any given moment: adoption, and liquidity.

1. Adoption - the number of users that hold or transact Bitcoin - this determines the long-term price trend. The more users and the higher volumes they send to each other on-chain, the higher the price. Why? A rough answer is that to use Bitcoin, you first need to buy it. This creates demand and drives up the price.

2. Global Liquidity. Are central banks stingy or is the money printer going brrrr? The ease with which people can get their hands on dollars and other fiat currencies determines the amount they invest in risky assets. And Bitcoin is still considered a speculative investment. The higher the global liquidity, the higher the price of Bitcoin. That is at least the opinion of many macro analysts, including Raoul Pal from GMI (see chart below).

The liquidity factor, in particular, explains why Bitcoin's price moves are so huge. Adoption is growing more gradually than the liquidity shocks of the global monetary system. A liquidity flood, for example, the printing press that went brrr after the onset of the covid pandemic, sent Bitcoin sharply higher (see graph below for year-long correlation between global money supply (M2) and crypto market price swings). Simply because people and institutions have more money on the side to invest. But when in 2022, the Central Banks paused the money printer, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and stocks went down.  

Correlation between fluctuations in liquidity (white) and market value of all crypto (blue). Source: GMI

Bitcoin short-term price prediction

Giving a short-term price prediction is hard if not impossible. Crypto assets are by definition highly volatile. That being said, short-term predictions must be updated frequently. 

Most analysts are using a variety of indicators and chart patterns to predict short-term price movement. If you like to learn more about these tools you should check out our other educational articles that teach you how to read order books and many more things. One interesting source to check out are the price predictions Coinmarketcap users make, which have been 75% accurate over the past six months at the time of writing. Do keep in mind these are predictions by mostly non-professional traders and enthusiasts. 

Around the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around 20.000 euros. How are we doing with Bitcoin adoption and liquidity? Well, there are no signs that adoption is slowing down. During the bear market, the number of transactions fell. But the number of transactions is up again to levels of the 2021 bull market. The new ordinals protocol (NFT's on Bitcoin) also helps to give the network a boost.

How about liquidity? It seems to be close to a bottom. The American Central Bank won't hike interest rates much further. And the balance sheet isn't shrinking that fast. On the other hand, it doesn't look like the Fed will pump money into the system any time soon. See how speculative this is?  

Looking at the chart, it is interesting that Bitcoin has broken out of a falling wedge, which is a bullish pattern to break out of. Note that is not a law, but a probability! There are also falling wedges which break out to the downside or falling wedges that see a breakout to the upside, followed by a price decline.

Bitcoin price prediction for 2023

With the above in mind: liquidity will be rather flat in 2023, and adoption is slightly up again. This could mean a modest uptrend for Bitcoin, but not an explosive one. This pattern would correspond with the previous four-year cycles of Bitcoin, in which a year-long downtrend was followed by a year of price recovery - but no new all-time highs yet. 

There are bullish and bearish predictions. For example, Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, sees Bitcoin drop to $12.000 if energy prices keep climbing. While Forbes also cites that many professional Bitcoin investors are looking at a price stabilizing beyond $30.000. CNBC reports a new bull run is unlikely for 2023 but experts are looking to next year with optimism. 

Bitcoin price prediction for 2024

First, let's look at adoption and liquidity again. We are currently in an uptrend for adoption, and there is no immediate reason to believe this will change in the short term. On the other hand, growing regulation could put a damper on that. 

How about liquidity? The majority of analysts expect that by 2024, Central Banks will start dropping interest rates again. Also, assuming that inflation will have been tamed (at least for a while), it can be assumed that the money printer will go on again. After all, a looming economic slowdown or even a recession calls for monetary support. 

Combine the above with the fact that 2024 is the year of the Bitcoin halving (expected around March 2024). Halving usually precedes a bull run. Anthony Scaramucci is expecting a price between $50.000 and $100.000 in two to three years. 

Bitcoin price prediction for 2025-26

If we go by the traditional Bitcoin cycle, 2025 would be the year of the next bull market, with price increases of possibly a few hundred per cent compared to the 2021 high of 69.000 dollars. A price target of somewhere between $100.000 and $200.000 is seen as realistic by many respected analysts. And Plan B even predicts a possible $1.000.000,-. Of course, a lot depends on other factors. Is adoption still on the rise? Are governments not overly strict in their regulatory efforts?

There are no guarantees, it's mostly a projection of previous chart patterns. And of course, predictions change all the time. A year ago, some analysts predicted roughly $250.000 for 2025 but this was made in bull market times. 

If history repeats, 2026 could then be the year of the correction after the bull run, similar to what we saw in 2018 and 2022.

Bitcoin price prediction for 2030

This far into the future, the exact liquidity conditions are hard to pinpoint. Even though the base case is that fiat currencies will keep devaluating against hard assets such as real estate, stocks and Bitcoin. It is also harder to project adoption trends. There are lots of unknowns, not least the possibility of government bans. 

Having mentioned that disclaimer, let's grab a couple of pricing models: that of Ark Invest, the logarithmic regression and stock-fo-flow.

Ark's BTC price prediction

Ark Invest, the investment firm with innovation-centered ETFs, has tried to make an educated guess about Bitcoin adoption in 2030. Based on this, they make a BTC price prediction for 2030: 1.3 million dollars.

While this price target may feel a lot like "hopium" in the current market, ARK substantiates it. Here are a few of Ark's projected 2030 use cases for Bitcoin, and the corresponding price target for that use case alone: 

• Nation-state Treasury (1%) -> 181.000/BTC (meaning: if only 1% of nation state treasuries would be accounted for by Bitcoin, this would lead to a 181 k Bitcoin price)
• Corporate Treasury (5%) - > 200.000/BTC
• Digital gold (50%) -> 260.000/BTC (If BTC can soak up 50% of the value of gold as an investment vehicle)

According to Ark, these three use cases alone could add up BTC's price above $500.000 in 2030. An example of another, smaller percentage use case: remittance payments. 

Of course, ARK is the first to admit that these are rough estimates, and that no outcome is guaranteed by any means. But the point is that these use cases don't all have to materialize for prices to rise substantially.

BTC Logarithmic growth curve model price prediction

Respected analyst Dave the Wave uses his Logarithmic Growth Curve model to determine a price range within Bitcoin has (and possibly) will hover. The line that goes through the center approximates the growing adoption. Why is it so slowly going up, while adoption increases fast? Because the line is plotted on a log chart, which compresses the y-axis.

 
BTC Logarithmic Growth Curve model

The moves up and down between the bottom and top of the channel, are a consequence of changing liquidity, supply (halvenings) and, of course, emotions of market participants. Dave the Wave:  

"Bitcoin is a nascent currency in the process of capitalization. There are periods of volatility in both directions as new people add and subtract liquidity in adoption waves." 

According to the model, a 400.000 Bitcoin is realistic in 2030, with a broad range of uncertainty: as low as 150.000 and as high as roughly 550.000 dollars. 

Stock to flow price prediction for 2030

In the beginning of this article, we mentioned two factors that contributed to the price. These both determine the demand side of the equation. We failed to mention an important third one, the supply side. Bitcoin has a supply halving every four years. Even though the relative effects of this so-called halvening are expected to play a smaller role, they will still be be notable in 2024 and 2028, when the next two halvenings occur. 

A controversial price prediction model of Bitcoin is the Bitcoin stock-to-flow model (s2f). It takes only the supply side in account. The foundational ingredient of this model is the inflation rate of Bitcoin, which is continuously falling and will according to the model correlate with higher and higher prices. The stock-to-flow model predicts a BTC price between 1 million and 10 million dollars for Bitcoin in 2030.

 
Bitcoin Stock-to-flow model. source: https://s2f.hamal.nl/s2fcharts.html

There has been a lot of controversy surrounding this price model. The most important critique is that s2f only takes the supply side of the story into account. The entire model hinges on the assumption that demand is constant. As we experienced in 2022, when the Fed started tightening liquidity in the financial system, this is not the case. When the bear market unfolded in earnest, the model didn’t look so good anymore: price has been deviating a lot from the projected price.

Can anybody predict the price for Bitcoin with certainty?

No, all projections, price targets, and market analyses must be taken with a grain of salt. Even AI cannot predict the outcome of markets in terms of price movements. While it might be unsatisfying to receive such an answer, it is worth remembering that it is the uncontrollable risk that justifies the possible reward in trading Bitcoin or any other crypto asset.

Buying Bitcoin or not?

Buying and holding Bitcoin is tough, considering the price swings to the downside. Hopefully, this article has helped to filter out the noise. What matters are adoption and liquidity and the timeframe you trade on.

Is adoption in an uptrend? That's an indication that Bitcoin might still be a good long-term hold, regardless of short-term price swings. People who want to trade on short timeframes, might want to follow the financial markets. How are liquidity conditions unfolding?

Also read: Ethereum price prediction for the coming years

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